Now that the festivities of celebrating the arrival of a new year have passed, it’s time for our annual Top Ten Alert and Warning Predictions post. It’s the time of year we dust off our crystal ball and peer into the future looking for signs of things to come within the alerts and warnings industry. (For some reason we can’t see anything beyond December 21, 2012. Hopefully, that isn’t a bad sign. We’re fairly sure it’s nothing to worry about.)
So, without further delay, may we present to you our top ten predictions for 2012:
CMAS becomes a reality.
The Commercial Mobile Alert System (CMAS)—also known as Personal Localized Alerting Network (PLAN)—will become a reality in 2012. This technology will allow local alerting authorities to send cell broadcast text messages to citizens within a targeted geographic area (and it requires no sign-up by the citizens).
Telephony carriers are gearing up for an April deadline to have the inner workings in place. From our sources, it appears this deadline is holding. The City of New York has already conducted testing and will roll out its version right after the new year.
While we can’t promise clarity on the program’s proper name going forward (CMAS? PLAN?), we do feel this useful technology will finally come to fruition over the next few months.
More national tests on the horizon.
This fall, our nation saw its first-ever national test of the Emergency Alert System (EAS). The test was successful in identifying key gaps in functionality and process that would keep the “system” from being effective in an actual emergency.
As improvements are made and broadcaster equipment is upgraded in 2012, expect additional testing to occur in order to measure improvements, including at least one additional national test.
IPAWS signs up alert origination authorities.
While IPAWS’s first mission is to ensure the President can communicate with citizens in a crisis, its capabilities extend to local public safety officials. Local alerting authorities will be able to originate warning messages targeted to local citizens, and have these messages distributed through a variety of devices automatically (CMAS, local EAS, all-hazards radio, Internet, etc.).
In 2012, we’ll see the first round of local alerting authorities sign up and begin utilizing the system (FEMA has just released a new IPAWS training program to set the stage for this—find it here).
Emergency managers seek to connect with other related disciplines. Alerts and warnings provide common ground.
Emergency managers, business continuity specialists, first responders, physical security professionals, etc. all have similar interests. During a crisis, these interests may intersect—or perhaps collide—“on the ground,” making coordination important.
We’re seeing growing interest in cross-discipline collaboration in general, but it’s particularly acute with regards to alerts and warnings. For 2012, we expect to see continued growth of discussions related to the variety of methods and sources of information for warning and instructing citizens. Look for conferences and publications to highlight perspectives from disciplines outside our normal silos.
Competition rises, prices fall.
Since 2001, the alert and warning industry has been a wildly competitive marketplace. There’s no sign of this changing in the new year. As smaller municipalities desire the ability to notify citizens, and shared technology infrastructures allow for lower incremental costs, fierce competition will continue. Prices, in the smaller tiers of the market, will also continue to see downward pressure. (We recently saw where ten vendors bid on a smaller municipality in New York with prices ranging from $7500 to $15,000 per year).
From the emergency manager’s perspective, this is good news as more options should be available for a lower cost. From a vendor’s perspective, it means intelligent market segmentation is needed, along with tiered product offerings to capture the range of needs and price points in the marketplace.
Vendors in the market further consolidate through mergers and acquisitions.
While we’re on the subject of vendors, we expect to see additional consolidation of vendors through mergers and acquisitions this coming year. Emergency managers and other preparedness professionals want integrated solutions (more on this in a moment). This creates opportunity for vendors, each with their own slice of the incident management pie, to come together and create more unified offerings.
The consolidation/unification idea certainly isn’t new. Frankly, we’ve seen vendors try and fail at this already over the past few years. However, the time is ripe for a provider to figure out the formula for pulling together different product offerings and organizations, ultimately creating meaningful marketplace value.
Greater focus placed on people with disabilities and limited English proficiency.
Even as alert and warning technology becomes more pervasive, challenges still remain for broad and equitable communications in a crisis. Significant barriers still exist for rapidly and effectively warning people with disabilities, older adults, and individuals with limited English proficiency.
We expect this issue to receive greater attention in 2012, likely spawned by a combination of factors including greater advocacy group awareness, heightened sensitivity generated by IPAWS, and enhanced local efforts to address gaps in alerting.
Further movement toward a “system of systems” approach.
Despite advances in technology, most warning systems still exist in silos. Siren systems are separate from automated telephone systems, which are separate from EAS encoders, etc. While 2012 may not bring a quantum leap in integration of these disparate networks, we do expect to see more examples emerge of local agencies focusing resources around simplifying and connecting warning systems—creating a “system of systems” approach.
Citizens and professionals seek faster, more targeted warnings.
This past year brought massive devastation and loss of life from tornadoes, flooding and other weather-related events. Citizens see local agencies with automated alert and warning systems in place and wonder why these can’t be used to notify people in the path of a tornado. On one hand, the technology exists to make this feasible. On the other hand, weather-based notifications are not foolproof, and agencies that commit to providing them raise community expectations while increasing their risk exposure.
The debate won’t be resolved in 2012, but look to see heightened discussions surrounding these types of highly targeted, ultra-rapid notifications.
The end of the world will NOT occur on December 21, 2012…
But all the doomsday talk may generate a few press interviews for a few of you savvy emergency managers. We’re not suggesting you feed any hysteria. But it might be a good time to promote your efforts around alerts and warnings. Also, touting the need for personal preparedness in the face of non-Mayan-related critical events would be in order. Perhaps a well-placed, even tongue-in-cheek, promotion of your agency’s accomplishments and state of readiness will serve you well when 2013 really does roll around.
Here’s to a happy, healthy, and productive new year to all our readers. Be safe out there. And thanks for all you do to protect our safety and our freedom.
Best regards,
Lorin and Rick
