1. Move from proprietary, stand-alone systems to highly-integrated systems: In our 2009 retrospective, we cited examples of momentum for the system-of-systems approach. More examples will become clear throughout 2010. The technology is certainly available, and public safety officials want it. Money will be a barrier, but it doesn't take bright politicians to know that if they don't spend it to enhance alerts and notifications, they'll leave their citizens exposed. This prediction really needs to come true.
2. CAP will continue to take hold: The Common Alerting Protocol is an agreed-upon standard for disparate notification and alerting systems to share their messages. CAP has been slow to catch on. Some key vendors still don't support it. But, a tipping point will occur in 2010. More public safety officials will require it, and more vendors will support it.
3. IPAWS will become more visible: FEMA's Integrated Alerting and Warning System has been quietly working to develop a better national system for alerts. This work will become better known in 2010. It must. IPAWS was blasted in 2009 by Congress's General Accounting Office for failure to show results and effectively collaborate with local and state officials. The new FEMA Director is a state and local emergency management pro and is supportive of IPAWS. The new IPAWS program manager sounds aggressive. You'll hear more from IPAWS, and hopefully IPAWS will hear more from you.
4. New industry leaders will begin to emerge: With so much going on in the alerts and notifications space, there's room for new industry leadership. We'll start seeing who those new leaders will be. At least one, maybe two, well-known brands will disappear.
5. A highly-visible failure will occur: Unfortunately, it's simply time for it to happen. It will likely occur in a heavily populated area where the communications infrastructure breaks down from overload. Ability to deliver high-speed alerts via the telephone and texting system hasn't kept up. This will be a surprise to many.
6. Growth in the use of social media for alerts and warnings: It's already happening, and will continue to happen. There will be those in both industry and emergency management who will fight it. Others will seize it.
7. Further commoditization of notifications including "free services": Several text-based public safety notification offerings made available at no charge were unveiled last year. This will continue in 2010. Some could build significant steam.
8. More procurements for independent help: As the topic becomes more complex, local governments will rely less on vendor claims and more on help from outside consultants. We've seen more procurements of this type in the last few months than we have in years.
9. More patent lawsuits: Two notification-related vendors recently went on the offensive against their competition and filed patent infringement lawsuits. These things normally come in groups. There will probably be others.
10. Other large-scale systems announced: Several large cities and counties, and a couple of states, announced roll-out of aggressive alerting and notification systems. Others will follow.
We'll soon release a video elaborating on the Top Ten Notification & Alerts Predictions for 2010. Watch the blog for more details, or email us at info@galainsolutions.com.
On a personal note, we're excited about 2010. Challenges face us all, but good things are happening, too. Our following on this blog continues to grow. We're getting good reaction from it, even from those who don't agree with us. That's fine with us, even encouraged. Our consulting practice thrives, on both the notifications side and on the selling to the government side. We're enjoying our work, and are deeply appreciative for the opportunities we've been given. We wish the same for you.
All the best in 2010,
Rick & Lorin
