Happy New Year! As we say goodbye to 2010, it's time to look ahead at the trends and developments on the horizon for emergency notification. Here's a look at our Top 10 Emergency Notification Predictions for 2011.
1. FEMA IPAWS continues to build strong momentum. The coming year will see broadcasters and cable operators replacing antiquated EAS hardware with shiny new digital equipment. Another test in Alaska will occur. Already, communication outreach to key stakeholders has begun and IPAWS is more visible at industry events and conferences. Vendors, who have been closely watching developments from afar, are beginning to act, folding IPAWS requirements into their development road maps. This momentum will continue to build into 2012 and beyond as CMAS is introduced and the modernization and enhancement of national warning capabilities becomes a reality.
2. CAP is king. With the growing importance of the IPAWS program coupled with the need for greater warning system interoperability, Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) adoption should skyrocket in 2012. While the protocol has been in existence for a while, OASIS' release and FEMA's formal adoption of the CAP 1.2 standard has caused emergency management system vendors of all types to make CAP a development priority. Look for emergency managers to insist on CAP-compliant technology solutions (particularly if new public safety grant language favors CAP adoption which we think will happen eventually).
3. New partnerships will be forged between emergency managers and broadcasters. While EM/broadcaster relationships are strong in some places, in other locations there is little proactive collaboration until a crisis occurs. As the modernization of EAS moves forward and broadcasters are expected to make their own investments to support it, we see a renewed sense of responsibility and spirit of collaboration emerging.
4. Warning system integration moves forward. Across the country, sirens, automated telephone systems, digital signage, fire panels, etc. are frequently stand-alone systems. Interoperability amongst these disparate technologies will take a step forward in 2011 as emergency managers look to capitalize on previous technology investments (instead of wholesale replacement of the systems), realizing system integration is a cost-effective way to make this a reality.
5. A little thing called "social media" continues to take hold within emergency management. Today, responder agencies are just beginning to Tweet and establish Facebook pages to alert citizens. In the next year, we will see agencies begin to experiment with ways to utilize social media for broader alerting and situational awareness purposes. New tools for analyzing social media streams will likely emerge.
6. The need for independent alert and warning guidance expands. With the growing need to integrate sirens, telephone notification systems, incident management applications, etc. coupled with advancements in IPAWS (not to mention the ever-growing list of notification vendors), emergency managers face a bewildering array of options and "voices" to try and decipher. For 2011, we'll see even more agencies turn to independent consultants and systems integrators (who are not shackled to a particular vendor) for help in assessing needs, developing specifications and bringing together disjointed systems.
7. Healthcare and educational institutions begin seeking to plug into local emergency alert and warning practices. Until recently, many campus-oriented responders have operated in isolation, developing their own procedures and acquiring their own equipment (often in conflict with those of other local responder agencies). While this will take some time to sort out, recent events in healthcare and higher education have stimulated new interest and incentive for collaboration across all agencies; better, more consistent solutions will be sought.
8. Alert and warning discipline will receive greater academic focus; new research will emerge. Historically, there has been relatively little academic or commercial research into warning practices and consequences. We believe this will begin to change in the upcoming year as reliance on these systems grows and the gap in knowledge is fully realized.
9. A focus on improving citizen notification data quality will emerge. In the past, much attention has been placed on the features and functions surrounding the notification system itself. However, emergency managers will soon turn their attention to ensuring citizen data quality improves. In today's mobile society, address databases turn over rapidly. Even if the original data source is E911, infrequent updates to this dataset for notification purposes means a large percentage of the records are no longer valid. Add to this the fact that GIS data can be incomplete and/or inaccurate and you have a dangerous compounding effect. Emergency managers will begin seeking resolution to this problem by increasing the frequency of updates and turning to GIS-specialized sources for help with accurate and complete geocoding.
10. Citizens demand more and participate deeper in alerts and warnings. As online social networks grow and expectations for real-time information are heightened, citizens will demand more from agencies, but will also plug in better themselves. "Micro-notifications" will be expected where citizens want responders to have access to their individual emergency contact information and other pertinent data (medical histories, allergies, living wills, etc.). Interest groups such as people with disabilities and people with limited English proficiency will expect better solutions for communications in a crisis than currently exist. Citizens will become more comfortable with providing this information to responders if strong security and privacy concerns are addressed. While this trend will take years to develop, we believe the beginnings of it are underway and will emerge more visibly within the coming year.
So there you have it. Our "crystal ball" view of what the upcoming year holds for the alerts and warnings industry. Even if you don't agree, we hope you find it interesting and thought provoking at the least.
On a personal note, Rick and I are very appreciative of our numerous readers, supporters and clients. It has been a privilege to meet many of you around the country this past year, hearing your feedback, accomplishments and challenges. We are thankful for the hard work you do each day in preserving our citizens' safety and way of life. Here's to a great 2011.
Best regards,
Lorin and Rick
Galain Solutions, Inc. is the nation's premier independent consulting firm aimed at helping public safety agencies evaluate, implement and integrate effective emergency notification solutions and programs. For more information, visit www.galainsolutions.com.
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Here's an interesting twist to the quest to use all means available to alert the public. The Connecticut lottery gets quite aggressive about spreading the word when an Amber Alert or Silver Alert is issued...Amber, of course, for missing endangered children and Silver for missing older adults or 18+'s with mental impairments.
On the Connecticut lottery web site at http://www.ctlottery.org/Content/amber_alerts.aspx, they list five things they do to help spread the word:
- Send an immediate message to over 2,700 retailers statewide
- Ask retailers to print and post copies of the messages in their stores
- Re-broadcast the message to retailers every half-hour for the first ninety minutes
- Continue to send the message every hour after that, for up to five hours
- Display the message on lottery in-store display monitors statewide
Plus, the lottery web page has a big button where residents can sign-up to get wireless messages when an Amber is issued.
Now, what would be even more cool is to see the lottery link to other types of emergency alerts.
We enjoy seeing these creative and effective ways alerting is being tied into things whose purpose wasn't originally for alerting. The more ways we can get alerts intertwined into people's lives, the more lives will be saved.
All the best,
Rick
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Gary Ham knows a lot about Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and even more about how CAP works with the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) FEMA is building. He's the FEMA contractor with the job of working with organizations (commercial and otherwise) who want to be part of the IPAWS system-of-systems.
Here's a recent post from Gary's blog that provides a nice explanation of some of the ins-and-outs of CAP, particularly as it relates to IPAWS.
And, here's a link to our post giving background on what Gary is up to and another reporting on progress, as of mid-December
All the best,
Rick
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These alerting systems can be a powerful thing, and it's hard to tell what will happen. For a school administrator in central Tennessee where Lorin and I live, an alerting system has turned her into a celebrity. Now, we know your cold weather types find it entertaining that schools in the south are called off for an inch of snow. My Dad was a school superintendent in middle Georgia. I was razzing him once about calling off school for a bit of snow. He said, "You don't want to be the one responsible for a school bus sliding off a slippery rural road."
Well, in Williamson County, school has been called off seven times this year because of snow (and slippery rural roads). That means either late evening or early morning, we get a call from the county school system via their telephone alert system. This excites my wife, a fifth grade teacher. She dances a jig, and has started singing a song about "Carol" (a Carol carol, I now call it). Carol is Carol Birdsong, the woman who records the school closing messages and sends out the alerts. She now has rock star status in Williamson County. Someone has even printed up tee-shirts in honor of Carol and her calls. We're seeing them all over the county. And, of course, there's the Carol carol:
"We're waiting for your call,
regarding the snow fall.
It'd be really cool,
if today you'd cancel school.
We're wishing for the best
to avoid tomorrow's test.
So please little Birdsong sing,
and make my telephone ring!"
Afraid I didn't recognize the tune. My wife's not much of a singer.
So, the point of the story, well there is none other I thought you would enjoy it.
Happy Snow Day,
Rick
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As reported by Emergency Management here, the color-coded alert system is being replaced by the National Terror Advisory System in April. As opposed to colors, the alert levels will be simply "imminent" or "elevated". As they change, specific advisory information will either be distributed to first responder organizations or the general public, depending on the nature of the situation.
The color-coded system was ridiculed as being too vague, even in places like Saturday Night Live. Those of us closer felt the ambiguity even more acutely. The fact that an elevation in the color-code was made nationwide made it particularly troublesome to figure out what processes to put into place when the code was changed. As a result, it wasn't really used. Plans are for the new system to be geographically targeted.
Considering what the Department of Homeland Security was dealing with at the time (besides the fact that it really wasn't the Department of Homeland Security then), the color-coded system may have been right for the times. We learned when we read Tom Ridge's book that a friend (and true public servant) came up with the idea. Mike Byrne hadn't talked about it much before the book came out. And, we posted here a few months back that he had "no regrets" about the color-coded system, despite the back lash.
We're glad the old system is being phased out, but at the same time, glad it was in place. Had we experienced another major attack, it would have gotten people's attention and been very helpful. Thankfully, it hasn't been used much...and hopefully the new system won't be either.
All the best,
Rick
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