by Eric Holdeman: Emergency management in the blogosphere
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After watching the Super Bowl ads I've decided that eventually the cyber attack that takes down the Internet will not come from China, but from a bunch of 13 year old teens watching Twilight on their mobile devices that are receiving streaming video. You should have noted several Super Bowl ads touting mobile devices for watching TV, or other streaming video
Video is a bandwidth hog and a mobile bandwidth hog at that. We do not have the capacity (yet?) to handle the technology that is coming our way. We are 19th on a list that compares the Internet Speeds of various countries . Japan, South Korea and France are way ahead of the pack.
You can read an interesting article on Who Rules the Net? which speaks to how much government regulation should occur. Or, should the free market rule? I suppose no one would want the banks to run the Internet, but with size and buying power you can get a great deal of control in the hands of only a few players.
While the Internet has been the wild, wild West for some time, it is appropriate that the federal government play a role. The article argues about what that should be so that innovation is not inadvertently stifled.
Government Technology has a nice piece in their current issue by Dan Lohrmann, Michigan's Chief Technology Officer. Ready for Your Budget Emergency? promotes the use of a budget disaster scenario for figuring out how to respond when the next budget cut(s) come.
Exercises are good for promoting thoughtful consideration of an organization's options. It is clear that the Emergency Management folks in Michigan have had their impact on the senior leadership in the state.
You might promote just such an exercise in your own jurisdiction to a) show value during these tough economic times b) help with setting the budget priorities for your community.
"As a people, we Americans are at our best when we are helping one another and people in far away countries." Eric Holdeman We Americans have big hearts. When disasters strike we want to help. The need can be right next door, down the street, or across the world, but we step up and help.
Help comes from financial donations and those who are willing and able volunteer their time and skills to the impacted area. Haiti is only the latest example of our outpouring of care for a nation devastated by disaster.
I wish somehow we could tap that reservoir of good will and action to do things in their own communities before a disaster strikes. There are some who do this now via their volunteer activities however, their numbers are few when compared to the need that exists.
To all those who gave or are yet to give to the Haitian disaster reliefâ"Thank you!
This 2020 Vision blog posting got me thinking about the future for us in emergency management. Technology will of course be very big for what we need to do in preparing for, responding to and recovering from disasters.
What I see as the future is that wireless connectivity will be King. Just as communications are needed in the voice realm, our data and in reality our voice communications (via Voice over IP) will be a priority. Most of what we do will somehow be connected to the internet. While we have some portability now for displaying and sharing information (Blackberries or smart phones) the new line of products like the iPad and Que are going to transform how we operate in the EOC of tomorrow--which is not that far away.
One of the things I struggled with in an activated EOC is having information at my fingertips, but not being tied to the computer and one single location in an EOC. I believe the EOC Director needs to up and moving around and interacting with the various EOC units. Now the mobility afforded by this new family of devices will provide functionality and mobility in the EOC, or wherever you are, if you have connectivity. Imagine that you are walking around the EOC with one of the touch pad devices in your hand and calling up information, most of it on the web, that you will aid you in your decision making.
Look at the move to 3G and 4G wireless systems by cell phone providers. You also have Clearwire providing home and business connectivity via only wireless. Comcast is moving to wireless solutions. All those cables will soon be a faded memory in the not-to-distant-future.
The challenge is creating the operations budget to support these new technology solutions. It has not been a line item in the past. Buddy up with the IT Director, because you with need his/her support!
If you think 2009 was a bad budget year, wait until you see what 2010 has in store for you. In early 2009 I was encouraging everyone to fill their vacancies because the bottom was going to drop out of the budget. That happened for sure!
A current estimate I saw for states is a $369B budget shortfall between now and 2012. Those numbers will not be made up anytime soon. What is worse for 2010 is that there is no federal stimulus funds in sight to bail out state's economic woes. There were some one time savings taken last year that cannot be repeated again. Expect more deferred maintenance on critical infrastructure and slower implementation of technology solutions.
Governing Magazine had an article on The Stress Mess that this might put government workers in. Even in the good times emergency management programs are not resourced for worst case events. I can see many one person shops closing up and the work being assigned to others in the workforce as an additional duty. I'd be interested in hearing from folks who are taking budget cuts and how you are adjusting your programs. Leave a comment!
One mistake I made back in the dot.com downturn was eliminating our Emergency Management Training Program. After all that is the solution recommended right? Don't pick at all the programs, cut out distinct pieces. In retrospect this was a mistake to make. When things did pick up it is too hard to start over from scratch if you have not been sustaining the program all along. My recommendation is to just "do less with less." Keep all the program elements, but cut back on your activities.
In the short term I just don't see any good budget news to share.
When do you have time to read all the national publications that come out? Personally I struggle to keep up with it all. The two documents I've got to get to are the Quadrennial Homeland Security Review and now the National Disaster Recovery Framework
FEMA put out a news release on the Framework and also the deadline for submitting comments. At least the document is several hundred pages long.
I did look at the membership on the working group for this project. You have the Secretary of Homeland Security, but FEMA representation is not listed. Hmm, even in the Bush Administration they recognized the role that FEMA plays in disaster recovery.
The other interesting item of note is the term "Framework." Which says to me that it is not a plan. But then, we have the National Response Framework, and it too is "not a plan."
I'll get back to you on this after I peruse the document.
I think the Obama Administration has a focus on what I call the "Deep Battle."
Back in the 1980's the US military was focused on the Soviet Union and the potential for an invasion of Europe. The classic scenario used was that of the Fulda Gap. Thousands of Russian tanks pouring through this slice of terrain and fanning out in an all out assault. For the infantryman on the front lines the decision as to what target to engage is pretty simple, it is the closest tank--which is more dangerous to your survival. It was up to the people at Corps, and Army levels to fight the "Deep Battle." This is to engage the enemy while they are still in their assembly areas before they can bring their firepower to bear on your own friendly forces fighting the good fight in the front lines. Long range artillery, missiles and aircraft would be used to conduct the deep battle.
One of the policy agenda items that Obama has taken on is national healthcare. While costs continue to get worse it is still not a crisis. While some argue that we have the best healthcare in the world (for a select few I think) there is this looming crisis in years to come. If not addressed in the near term those health care Tanks/costs will be at our door step eventually and will likely overwhelm us. They are fighting a deep battle.
The latest Quadrennial Homeland Security Review was recently released. Claire Rubin has noticed that there isn't much being said about the document--but she did find a conservative think tank's comment Night of the Living Dead Which I at lease like the title!
In that posting they castigate the administration for bringing climate change into the review of homeland security threats. Here again I think it is the Obama Administration is calling attention to what we will face in the future when climate change destabilizes portions of the world when there are huge population shifts due to people needing to move from where they have traditionally lived. The point is made that the Quadrennial Homeland Security Review is not supposed to be a far reaching document, only focused on the closest tanks that now threaten us--shoe, vest and underwear bombers and the like (almost sounds like they should open a Men's Warehouse for Terrorists). Get 50% off your suicide bomb vest this coming Presidents Day sale!
Disaster mitigation is another "Deep Battle" that needs to be fought. I have not heard the same passion for that topic coming out of the administration as of yet. But we will continue to respond to all manner of disasters as they pop up coming at us over the hill. The only way to minimize the damage disasters can do is to mitigate, or in the case of climate change use adaptation to reduce the hazard before it can impact us so severely.
In reality you need two strategies. One is for the close fight, NIMS, ICS, plans, trained forces that are well exercised and a network of local, state and federal assets for responding. Then ideally, the deep battle that is fought not just by the feds, but by state and local jurisdictions remaking their critical infrastructure and protecting people and where they live by eliminating hazards or reducing their impacts.
President Obama has created a new Homeland Security Council of Governors I picked this up from an announcement from the Washington Governor's Office that Governor Gregoire will co-chair the council.
I find that there are two interesting points from this:
- Gregoire is trying to eliminate a bunch of committees and commissions here in Washington State that she has deemed to be superfluous. It will be interesting to watch what this "Council of Governors" can accomplish on the Homeland Security front.
- And, why Gregoire to co-chair? I give the credit to her being on the council in the first place to MG Timothy Lowenberg, Adjutant General for the Washington State National Guard. He has been active in emergency management and homeland security from day one when he arrived in the job. I think it is because of his influence in D.C. and his orchestrating state agency efforts over the years and cultivating a relationship with the Governor that she would take this on.
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This Time Story on scientist's recommendations to relocate portions of the Haitian capitol to better soils is an interesting story and a potential welcomed change in behavior. Typically you cannot get the science fast enough after a disaster to impact the recovery efforts.
Scientists are famously hesitant to take positions on controversial issues until "all the facts are in." All of which can take years or decades to pin down the absolute truth of an issue. Even then they can be reluctant. Just review the debate on climate change and global warming and you will see how that evolution of opinion has changed over the decades.
Yes, we can mitigate hazards by building seismically stronger buildings. However, the best solution is to avoid the hazardous area altogether--if possible. Given the level of destruction in Haiti that might be the best solution. The degree to what the Haitian government can do that is probably problematic. Here in the United States it would be almost impossible. People want to do what they want--and then be bailed out when disaster strikes. It is the American way!
One of my Eric's Corner Columns in 2010 will be on Marketing Emergency Management. I think we are all in "sales" by the way we try to get people engaged in becoming prepared for disasters and building our partnerships.
I came across Social Media Marketing for Dummies which might be worth your checking out. Since social media is the now and the future for our communications this book might give you a chance to get ahead of the curve in how you market your program and also disaster preparedness.
Latest Emergency Management News
At schools nationwide, students are organizing meals, selling wristbands and donating their time and money to aid the Haitian people impacted by the earthquake.
The Web site will facilitate the department's open government initiative.
The real question should be: Why haven't communities done anything about surge capacity?
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